New study on youth smoking and perceived availability

An interesting study on predictors of youth smoking was published this week in the journal Annals of Family Medicine. The study examines whether perceived availability of cigarettes is a strong predictor of whether youth will start smoking.

The conclusion: yes. If youth perceive cigarettes are available, they are more likely to start smoking. The study also found that youth who perceived availability of cigarettes and who had smokers among their peer group were more likely to start smoking than those who have one or the other factor but not both.

There are some limitations with this study. First, as the authors acknowledge, self-reporting of problematic behaviors is not always accurate or dependable, and it is possible youth who smoked reported that they did not smoke.

Second, and perhaps more critically, this study stops short of proving a causal relationship, and shows instead that availability of cigarettes and future smoking are associated (hence the language about availability being a "predictor" of future use). There could be other factors at work in such an association. For instance, youth who perceive that cigarettes are available may be part of a social group or neighborhood in which cigarettes are more visible than in other areas, or in which youth smoking is less taboo. While the correlation between availability and future smoking is strong, it's important to remember that reducing perceived availability won't necessarily get rid of other problems that could be contributing to incidence of youth smoking.

There are positive outcomes to be taken from this research. It gives programs, families, schools and communities an angle from which to help prevent tobacco use from an early age, and examine further whether availability causes future smoking or simply predicts it.

Also, this research further strengthens the idea that tobacco use is correlated with social behavior. This helps build the case that social behavior is useful for helping teens -- or adults -- quit smoking. Another study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine this year, suggests that people are more likely to quit when part of large social groups that are quitting. Perhaps youth development can try this approach with youth who are already addicted?

Thanks to RoOobie for the Creative Commons photo

News about graduation rates

by Debs Gardner

I wish it had been an April Fool's Day joke, but the news released on April 1st about graduation rates in urban school districts was truthful and sobering. The report (which you can find here), compiled by America's Promise, revealed that not only are graduation rates in the nation's 50 largest cities at an alarmingly low rate (about 58% graduating), but that the gap nationally between urban districts and their suburban counterparts (about 75% graduating) is significant.

Note that a school district being located in a suburban area doesn't cause kids to stay in school any more than a school district being in a city causes kids to drop out. There are some factors worth noting, especially poverty, racism, health, access to opportunities, and school funding that have a pretty strong impact on whether kids will succeed. Notably, some urban areas had a much higher discrepancy between suburban and urban graduation rates than others. Seattle had about a 10% discrepancy.

By the way, the same day the report was released, Education Secretary Margaret Spellings announced that the US would now require a standard means of reporting graduation rates. Also not an April Fool's joke. I'm curious; what do schools think of this? Does it make sense? Is the procedure or formula a good one?

We'll explore the issue of graduation more in future posts, including how to increase graduation without depleting the other ingredients youth need and deserve in their lives. Please share your thoughts as well.

Thanks to gadgetdude on Flickr for the Creative Commons photo.